OPTIMIZATION OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IN THE PALM OIL MARKETING STRATEGY: DAILY PRICING MODEL FOR 30 DAYS TRANSACTIONS

  • Ambar Kurniawan Indonesian Oil Palm Research Institute
  • Ahmad Haslan Saragih PT Perkebunan Nusantara VI
Keywords: palm oil, price forecasting, daily prices

Abstract

Information on future trends in price movement has a strategic role in the palm oil business. Through this information then embodied in the form of product marketing strategy. This study aims to build a daily price forecasting model for 30 days of forward transactions (Model 30 DTH) and based on the technical analysis. Goodness of fit is based on the suitability of the trend of price movement and the daily margin error between the forecast and the actual price in the future (ex-ante). Referring to both indicators from the Formulation stage to the 9th Validation, it shows that the model is relatively good in predicting daily price movement trends as well as daily error margins.

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Author Biographies

Ambar Kurniawan, Indonesian Oil Palm Research Institute
Ahmad Haslan Saragih, PT Perkebunan Nusantara VI

PT Perkebunan Nusantara VI

Published
2017-08-01